I. Introduction and key findings
Since the beginning of South Sudan’s civil war in December 2013, Unity has experienced more violence and upheaval than any other state in the fledgling nation.1 By the end of 2015, the number of people accommodated in the protection of civilians (PoC) site of inside the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) in Rubkona had swelled to 140,000. This population was by far the largest in any single UNMISS base, representing more than two-thirds of 220,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) who were taking shelter in UNMISS bases (IOM, 2015b). If the deserted streets of Bentiu, the ruined capital of Unity, are any indication, the peace agreement—signed by the South Sudanese president, Salva Kiir Mayardit, and the head of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movementin-Opposition (SPLM–IO),2 Riek Machar Teny, and ratified on 10 September 2015—has had little effect on conflict dynamics in the state. Indeed, it is sobering to note that the ratification of the agreement, and subsequent negotiations over the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), resulted in no noticeable shift in the way the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has conducted the war in Unity state.
This Working Paper surveys the first two years of the South Sudanese civil war in Unity and analyses its underlying conflict dynamics. With only minor variations, the front lines remained relatively fixed during this period. The two Padang Dinka counties of Abiemnom and Pariang have remained under the control of the SPLA, reflecting the loyalty of the riverine Dinka to the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GRSS) and their difficulty in finding a place in the country’s only majority-Nuer state (see Map 1).3 The front line between the belligerent parties has largely run west to east, south of the state capital, through Guit and Rubkona counties. Most of Mayom, home to the Bul Nuer, the only Nuer section that has largely supported Juba throughout this conflict, has generally been under government control.
The worst abuses of the civil war have been carried out in the southern counties of Unity—Koch, Leer, Mayendit, and Panyijar. Leer, Machar’s home town, has been attacked repeatedly, as government-aligned forces have twice undertaken dry-season offensives (in January–February 2014 and May–June 2015) against the Nuer south, the wellspring of SPLM–IO support in the state. UN sources estimate that more than 10,000 civilians died in Unity between late 2014 and late 2015, a period covering the government’s 2015 campaign but not its 2014 offensive (UNDHCSS, 2016, pp. 6, 22). During the 2015 offensive, the SPLA and aligned groups swept south, razing villages, raping women, and leaving more than 100,000 displaced. By November 2015, following the offensive, the total number of IDPs had risen to nearly 560,000, or 90 per cent of the state’s population. Unity thus became the South Sudanese state with both the highest number and the highest proportion of IDPs (OCHA, 2015a; 2016). In addition, people who sought refuge in Sudan may number in the tens of thousands, including Sudanese refugees who chose to return to conflict areas in South Kordofan and Darfur. In October 2016, approximately 100,000 refugees from South Kordofan were still living in Unity state, trapped between two war zones.
Download the report A State of Disunity: Conflict Dynamics in Unity State, 2013–15 (HSBA Working Paper 42) by Joshua Craze and Jérôme Tubiana with Claudio Gramizzi